acuTREND ~ LODD (Long-Only, Drawdown Discipline)CPR: Capture. Protect. Repeat.

Capture the Major Trends. Control the Downside.

A long-only, rules-based framework for multi-year allocation in core equities and major ETFs, built on 40 years of market experience.

Our long-only approach captures the major trends, protects capital when they break, and repeats the process trend after trend, with drawdowns held to a disciplined fraction of buy and hold. That’s CPR.

A Long-Only Methodology for the Full Market Cycle

Institutional portfolios demand more than static entry and exit signals. acuTRADE is a buy-side-only framework, engineered through decades of market cycles for large-AUM ETFs and equities from $5 billion in market capitalization to the largest companies in the world. It never sells short. Its edge lies in owning the major uptrends and in controlling what happens when they end.

Every position is managed as a lifecycle, not a single call.

  • Buy: entry as a new uptrend is confirmed.
  • AT/B (Add To / Buy): signals as the trend renews, to add to a position or begin a new one.
  • SP 1 and SP 2 (Scale Partial): partial profits taken as the advance matures, 20% of the position at each, while the core 60% stays invested in the trend.
  • Exit: a disciplined close when the trend ends.

When a decline takes hold, acuTRADE exits, and the capital goes back to work. Declines are rarely universal. While one market weakens, others are entering new uptrends. Capital released by an Exit is redeployed into positions carrying active acuTRADE Buy signals or held in short-term Treasuries until the next opportunity appears. In 2022, as the S&P 500 fell 25%, acuTRADE identified positions in Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron and Vertex Pharmaceuticals as their uptrends took hold against the broader market.

The result is participation with control. On the Dow Jones ETF (DIA), acuTRADE stood aside for nine months during the global financial crisis and for one month during the COVID crash, then bought back in. From 2003 through 2017, buy and hold’s worst drop was 54.4%, while acuTRADE’s deepest drop below a Buy price was 17.6%. From 2018 through 2025, the gap was 38.5% against 4%.

The Dow, 2018 to Today

Worst drop, 2018–2025: buy and hold 38.5%, acuTRADE 4%

Dow Jones ETF (DIA) acuTRADE chart, 2018 to present, showing the COVID exit and re-entry

Dow Jones (DIA), 2018–2026: through COVID, 2022 and today. As acuPHASE turned red and acuPRESSURE showed heavy selling in early 2020, acuTRADE exited on March 10, 2020, at $247.29, a 5.3% gain. It was out for one month, through the crash and the bottom, and bought back on April 9, 2020, at $217.84, about 12% below its exit price. That trade is still open more than six years later. After one partial profit, the 80% still held up is 118.3%. The 2022 bear market cut the Dow by 22.4%, and April 2025 brought another sharp drop, but the position never fell below its Buy price.

Over 2018–2025, acuTRADE returned 89.3% against 93.5% for buy and hold, with a deepest drop below a Buy of 4% against buy and holds 38.5%.

A Decade of Real Markets: DJI 2002–2013

From June 2002 to May 2013, acuTRADE navigated three of the sharpest market drawdowns of the last quarter century: the 2002 bear market bottom, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the August 2011 U.S. debt ceiling selloff. For institutional allocators and family offices, downside protection is not about avoiding market exposure – it is about systematic risk governance through full market cycles.

Seven Years of Real Markets: QQQ (2019–2026)

Total Scope: Five sequential campaigns on QQQ (three long, two short) from February 2019 through June 2026.

Methodology: Every price, date, and percentage is derived directly from real charts, capturing the full record, including gains and losses.

Intel Corporation (INTC): A Complete Campaign

Every marker, every date, every price, documented in appendix below. Most trading systems present single, isolated calls in hindsight. acuTRADE is different. Below is an authentic, unedited look at how the acuTRADE algorithmic engine structured and managed capital across five sequential Intel Corporation (INTC) campaigns-navigating entries, executing disciplined scale-outs, flipping short, and capturing macro swings. Every date, price level, and return metric is drawn directly from chart source data.

How 32 Major Index & Sector ETFs Signal Strength and Weakness Across Equities

See where market leadership is emerging and where weakness is developing across U.S., international developed, and emerging markets.

Using the same systematic framework demonstrated in the Dow, Intel, and QQQ analyses, we evaluate 32 major indexes and sector ETFs through both historical campaign performance and current market structure. The result is a top-down view of market strength, sector rotation, and where conditions are changing across equities.

How 32 Major Index & Sector ETFs Signal Strength and Weakness Across Equities

See where market leadership is emerging and where weakness is developing across U.S., international developed, and emerging markets.

 

Using the same systematic framework demonstrated in the Dow, Intel, and QQQ analyses, we evaluate 32 major indexes and sector ETFs through both historical campaign performance and current market structure. The result is a top-down view of market strength, sector rotation, and where conditions are changing across equities.

Recognition from Industry Leaders

Perspectives from respected leaders in investment management, technical analysis, financial research, and academia.

Ralph Acampora
And it is authors like Chuck Dukas who continue to raise the bar for all of us when he writes that technical indicators will act differently during the six stages of his Market Phase Analysis. He wants his readers to understand that we should all approach the market with a trading plan and the discipline to carry out that plan. Enjoy Chuck’s book, I certainly did.
Tom DeMark
President, Market Studies, Inc.
Identifying a market’s trend, defining a process to time entries and exits, and applying a prudent money management approach are all essential components to consistent long-term trading and investment success and profitability. With clarity and detail, Chuck Dukas presents a much needed prescription to introduce these important elements into one’s trading regimen. This book is essential reading for anyone who operates in the markets and intends to be a survivor.
John Bollinger
CFA CMT
Chuck Dukas has developed an interesting life-cycle framework for equity analysis rooted in traditional technical analysis concepts that harkens back to the pioneering work of Stan Weinstein. Model builders will no doubt be anxious to test these ideas in the crucible of the markets.
Mike Epstein
Visiting Scholar, MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering
This book, The TRENDadvisor Guide to Breakthrough Profits, not only is a valid comprehensive guide to exploiting profit opportunities in modern equity markets, but also has the virtue of being written by a seasoned professional with a real time record of doing just that. This is no ‘pie in the sky’ wanna-be trader’s hope chest, but a well thought-out, clear exposition of how equity markets actually work, and how to make money from them

Testimonials

TRENDadvisor’s fully automated position management and systematic risk software is designed to deliver disciplined, multi-year trend exposure for institutional portfolios.

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