TRENDadvisor Research Note
Global ETF Stress Test Structural Analysis Using the acuTRADE Framework
Chuck Dukas Founder – TRENDadvisor
Mark Dukas, MBA Vice President
Key Findings…
• Structural trends across major ETFs demonstrate that sustained directional moves account for most long-duration market performance.
• The acuTRADE framework identifies intermediate adjustments within those trends while preserving participation in primary directional advances.
• Cross-asset analysis of global ETFs provides insight into evolving market leadership across sectors, international markets, and real assets.
This report presents a structural review of widely traded exchange-traded funds representing major segments of the global market, including broad market indexes, sector ETFs, growth and technology leadership, international markets, and real assets. The analysis is produced through the acuTRADE analytical framework, part of the broader
TRENDadvisor research platform, which integrates three core components of market evaluation:
• acuTRADE – trend structure and directional persistence
• acuPHASE – market phase identification across evolving market cycles
• acuVOLUME – participation dynamics that often accompany structural market shifts
Underlying this research is the TRENDadvisor 80/20 market perspective, which reflects the observation that most investment performance tends to develop during sustained directional trends, while shorter-term market movements typically account for a smaller portion of overall returns. Because exchange-traded funds represent diversified baskets of securities, they provide an e8ective lens through which broad market behavior can be evaluated across multiple asset classes using a consistent analytical structure.
The research presented here is produced by Chuck Dukas, founder of TRENDadvisor, a veteran market analyst and strategist whose work has focused on market structure, allocation strategy, and long-duration trends across global markets. His research framework has evolved over decades of market study and was first introduced in his book The TRENDadvisor Guide to Breakthrough Profits, now in its twentieth anniversary. Contributing to the research is Mark Dukas, MBA, Vice President of TRENDadvisor. Mark has spent more than a decade working within the digital asset and cryptocurrency markets and has appeared on East Coast television and Bitcoin Live, where he has discussed developments in digital assets and emerging market technologies.
His work provides additional perspective on evolving asset classes and market participation dynamics. The ETF analysis that follows applies the acuTRADE framework across major ETF groups to examine how structural trends develop across sectors, global markets, and real assets.
Framework Components Illustrated
• acuTRADE – Structural trend direction and persistence
• acuPHASE – Tracks evolving market phase cycles
• acuVOLUME – Measures participation dynamics during price advances
The chart above illustrates how the acuTRADE framework evaluates trend structure, market phase behavior, and participation dynamics within a single instrument. In this example, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF demonstrates a sustained directional advance following the 2023 buy signal, with the framework identifying intermediate adjustments such as capital preservation signals and add-to-position opportunities. The progression of acuPHASE bullish structure and the accompanying acuVOLUME participation trends highlight the type of sustained trend development that often produces most market returns under the TRENDadvisor 80/20 market perspective.
Exchange-traded funds have become one of the most e8ective instruments through which newsletter writers, family o1ices, and institutions evaluate global market behavior. ETFs represent diversified baskets of securities; they allow analysts to observe how major segments of the market develop and evolve across full market cycles. The following analysis reviews a diversified group of widely traded ETFs representing broad market benchmarks, sector leadership, growth and technology exposure, international markets, and real assets.
Each symbol has been evaluated using the acuTRADE analytical framework, which integrates acuTRADE trend structure, acuPHASE market phase analysis, and acuVOLUME dynamics to identify directional shifts and structural turning points. Rather than focusing on short-term fluctuations, the objective is to observe how major ETFs behave when evaluated through a consistent analytical structure across extended periods of market activity. The table below documents the most recent signals generated within the framework, including buy events, intermediate adjustments, and the resulting performance following those signals.
| 3/2/2025 | Buy | Price $ | Sell | Price $ | Short | Price $ | Cover | ATB Buy | Price $ | ATB Date | Price $ | From Buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROAD MARKET | ||||||||||||
| SPY | 4/27/2020 | 279 | 2/1/2023 | 396 | 4/28/2025 | 546 | 73 | |||||
| QQQ | 3/16/2023 | 308 | 3/22/2023 | 308 | 4/30/2025 | 474 | 95 | |||||
| DIA | 7/21/2009 | 33 | 6/5/2020 | 242 | 4/2/2025 | 407 | 100 | |||||
| VOO | 5/27/2020 | 256 | 2/1/2023 | 364 | 4/28/2025 | 502 | 74 | |||||
| IVV | 5/27/2020 | 280 | 2/1/2023 | 398 | 4/28/2025 | 548 | 74 | |||||
| VTI | 5/27/2020 | 141 | 2/1/2023 | 199 | 4/30/2025 | 270 | 70 | |||||
| IWM | 5/23/2020 | 138 | 6/13/2023 | 162 | 6/13/2022 | 162 | 192 | 2/1/2023 | 186 | 6/9/2025 | 211 | 42 |
| SECTORS | ||||||||||||
| XLF | 11/5/2020 | 23 | 9/26/2022 | 29 | 9/26/2022 | 29 | 11/10/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 33 | 2/25/2026 | 52 | 55 |
| XLK | 6/22/2009 | 8 | 9/30/2022 | 58 | 9/30/2022 | 58 | 2/1/2023 | 2/1/2023 | 67 | 5/7/2025 | 107 | 106 |
| XLE | 1/11/2021 | 17 | 10/21/2025 | 44 | 225 | |||||||
| XLI | 8/7/2020 | 69 | 9/23/2022 | 79 | 9/23/2022 | 79 | 10/27/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 93 | 4/22/2025 | 128 | 92 |
| XLV | 4/16/2020 | 90 | 9/25/2025 | 135 | 77 | |||||||
| XLY | 5/26/2020 | 59 | 7/12/2022 | 69 | 7/12/2022 | 69 | 8/15/2022 | 6/2/2023 | 76 | 5/8/2025 | 100 | 51 |
| XLP | 6/5/2020 | 52 | 1/9/2026 | 79 | 72 | |||||||
| XLU | 6/5/2020 | 26 | 11/13/2023 | 31 | 12/13/2023 | 31 | 12/13/2023 | 3/20/2024 | 30 | 4/18/2024 | 30 | 56 |
| XLB | 7/2/2020 | 26 | 11/10/2022 | 37 | 9/23/2022 | 32 | 11/10/2022 | 12/2/2022 | 39 | 12/11/2025 | 45 | 35 |
| GROWTH & TECH | ||||||||||||
| VUG | 4/14/2020 | 168 | 5/10/2022 | 222 | 5/12/2022 | 222 | 2/2/2023 | 3/31/2023 | 245 | 4/24/2025 | 375 | 89 |
| VTV | 8/10/2020 | 93 | 4/28/2025 | 163 | 122 | |||||||
| SCHG | 5/4/2020 | 11 | 5/12/2022 | 10 | 5/12/2022 | 10 | 3/31/2023 | 3/31/2023 | 16 | 4/29/2025 | 25 | 92 |
| IWF | 4/27/2020 | 164 | 4/17/2022 | 249 | 5/18/2022 | 220 | 5/18/2022 | 3/29/2023 | 235 | 2/28/1901 | 365 | 93 |
| IWD | 8/10/2020 | 108 | 10/13/2022 | 126 | 10/13/2022 | 126 | 11/30/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 148 | 5/20/2025 | 179 | 52 |
| XLK | 5/22/2009 | 8 | 9/30/2022 | 58 | 9/30/2022 | 58 | 2/1/2023 | 2/1/2023 | 67 | 5/8/2025 | 108 | 106 |
| MGK | 3/17/2016 | 76 | 5/12/2022 | 182 | 5/12/2022 | 182 | 8/15/2022 | 3/31/2023 | 202 | 4/28/2025 | 312 | 93 |
| IGV | 7/9/2009 | 7 | 5/9/2022 | 55 | 5/9/2022 | 55 | 3/30/2023 | 5/17/2023 | 62 | 2/4/2026 | 82 | 0.3 |
| SMH | 7/22/2009 | 9 | 10/10/2022 | 87 | 10/10/2022 | 87 | 1/17/2023 | 2/1/2023 | 120 | 5/13/2025 | 245 | 239 |
| SOX | 11/9/2009 | 311 | 10/13/2022 | 2120 | 10/13/2022 | 2120 | 1/23/2023 | 2/1/2023 | 2997 | 164 | ||
| INTERNATIONAL | ||||||||||||
| EFA | 12/13/2022 | 62 | 4/14/2025 | 77 | 66 | |||||||
| EEM | 6/5/2020 | 36 | 3/14/2022 | 38 | 3/14/2022 | 38 | 1/12/2023 | 6/13/2023 | 38 | 4/22/2025 | 42 | 62 |
| EWJ | 6/5/2020 | 50 | 4/26/2022 | 51 | 4/26/2022 | 51 | 3/9/2023 | 3/9/2023 | 53 | 4/21/2025 | 65 | 70 |
| EWY | 7/2/2020 | 52 | 5/12/2022 | 58 | 5/12/2022 | 58 | 5/12/2022 | 5/21/2025 | 58 | 5/28/2025 | 4834 | 152 |
| IEFA | 6/5/2020 | 50 | 6/14/2022 | 52 | 6/14/2022 | 57 | 12/13/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 57 | 4/14/2025 | 73 | 98 |
| VGK | 6/5/2020 | 44 | 6/13/2022 | 48 | 6/13/2022 | 48 | 12/13/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 53 | 4/10/2025 | 65 | 46 |
| FXI | 6/23/2020 | 36 | 2/24/2022 | 32 | 2/24/2022 | 32 | 5/10/2024 | 5/10/2024 | 26 | 4/10/2025 | 32 | 39 |
| REAL ASSETS | ||||||||||||
| GLD | 12/24/2018 | 120 | 9/23/2022 | 152 | 9/23/2022 | 152 | 12/13/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 166 | 10/16/2023 | 178 | 180 |
| SLV | 5/20/2020 | 16 | 7/14/2022 | 17 | 7/14/2022 | 17 | 12/2/2022 | 12/2/2022 | 21 | 3/5/2024 | 22 | 260 |
| DBC | 4/10/2019 | 14 | 2/3/2020 | 12 | 11/11/2020 | 12 | 11/11/2020 | 11/23/2020 | 12 | 8/21/2025 | 27 | 120 |
| VNQ | 7/24/2023 | 79 | 12/1/2023 | 77 | 12/13/2023 | 78 | 5/28/2025 | 86 | 23 | |||
| XLB | 7/2/2020 | 26 | 9/23/2022 | 32 | 9/23/2022 | 33 | 12/2/2022 | 12/2/2022 | 39 | 12/11/2025 | 45 | 34 |
The ETF groups shown above include broad market indexes, sector ETFs, growth and technology funds, international markets, and real-asset exposures. The table documents the most recent signal activity within the analytical framework along with the resulting performance of those signals across multiple market environments. The results presented here illustrate how a consistent analytical framework can be applied across a wide spectrum of ETFs to evaluate trend development and structural market behavior.
By examining broad market benchmarks, sector leadership, global markets, and real assets through the same analytical lens, it becomes easier to identify where sustained trends have developed and where market leadership has emerged. This type of cross-asset evaluation forms an important component of the broader research process behind the acuTRADE framework, where market structure, trend persistence, and participation dynamics are continuously monitored to identify evolving opportunities across global markets.
The analysis presented here is part of the ongoing market research produced by TRENDadvisor, founded by Chuck Dukas, a veteran market analyst and strategist focused on long-duration trends, market structure, and global asset allocation. Over the course of his career, Dukas has developed a disciplined analytical framework designed to identify structural shifts in markets rather than short-term price fluctuations. Central to this approach is an 80/20 allocation perspective, reflecting how institutions and family o8ices often concentrate most of the capital in sustained directional trends while allocating a smaller portion of capital to shorter-term opportunities.
This research forms the foundation of the acuTRADE framework, which integrates acuTRADE trend structure, acuPHASE market phase analysis, and acuVOLUME participation dynamics to evaluate market behavior across equities, sectors, international markets, and real assets. The objective of this work is straightforward: to examine markets through a consistent structural lens that helps identify sustained trends, evolving leadership, and meaningful shifts in market participation.
Additional research and chart analysis can be found at TRENDadvisor.com.
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