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Caterpillar (CAT), 2015–2026: Riding a Ten-Year Trend
acuTRADE exited the remaining 80% of its position on January 23, 2015, at $86.79, up 103.6%. It then stayed out for 14 months while Caterpillar fell 34.8%, and bought again only after the trend turned, on March 7, 2016, at $75.60.
In early 2018, SP 1 (Scale Partial) sold 20% at $124.70 (+64.9%) and SP 2 sold another 20% at $131.34 (+73.7%). Each SP sold 20% of the position, so 60% was still held. Caterpillar then moved sideways for two years: it tested resistance near $150, and support held for 17 months. In early 2020, acuPHASE gave an Early Warning and acuPRESSURE showed sellers in control. acuTRADE exited the remaining 60% on March 10, 2020, at $108.64, still up 43.7%.
It was bought back on April 1, 2020, at $112.09, the start of the decade’s best trade. Over five years it had 7 AT/B (Add To / Buy) signals. SP 1 (Scale Partial) sold 20% at $218.69 (+95.1%) and SP 2 sold another 20% at $358.72 (+220%), so 60% was still held. After an Early Warning in February 2025, acuTRADE exited the remaining 60% in the April 2025 tariff sell-off, on April 8 at $289.89, up 158.6%.
Three weeks later, on April 29, 2025, it bought again at $305.00. There have been 5 AT/B (Add To / Buy) signals since. SP 1 (Scale Partial) sold 20% at $525.07 (+72.1%) and SP 2 sold another 20% at $551.94 (+81%), so 60% is still held. As of October 23, 2026, it is up 125.2%. In October 2026, acuPHASE gave a new Early Warning.
Drawdowns: the worst drop along the way
| Period | Buy and hold | acuTRADE |
|---|---|---|
| 10 years, 2016–2025 | −49.5% (COVID, March 2020) | −10.6% (May 2020) |
| 5 years, 2021–2025 | −36.1% (tariff sell-off, April 2025) | −0.9% (April 2025) |
| 1 year, 2025 | −34.7% (April 2025) | −0.9% (April 2025) |
Over 2016–2025, buy and hold returned +756.6% and acuTRADE returned +628.7%, in the market 97% of the time. Every closed trade made money: the weakest gained 54.0% and the best gained 158.2%. In 2025, acuTRADE returned +58.5% against +56.7% for buy and hold, with a worst drop of 0.9% against 34.7%.
All charts, videos and results are for educational purposes only and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
How the results are measured
Buy and hold return: the change from the opening price on the first trading day of the period to the closing price on the last day.
acuTRADE return: the result of following every acuTRADE Buy, SP (Scale Partial) and Exit in that period, each acted on at the next day’s opening price, with the money left in cash, earning nothing, while acuTRADE was out. AT/B (Add To / Buy) signals are not included.
Worst drop for buy and hold: the largest fall from a high to a later low.
Deepest drop below a Buy for acuTRADE: the largest fall below the Buy price paid. It does not measure a pullback from a high reached after the Buy.
Prices are TradingView’s adjusted prices, which account for splits and dividends. Results exclude commissions, taxes and trading costs, are hypothetical, and do not guarantee future results.
All charts, videos and results are for educational purposes only and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.